The 2026 crop forecast has been revised down to 56,888 tonnes at 3.5% moisture or 61,000 tonnes in-shell at 10% moisture, with a forecast range of 60,000 to 62,000 tonnes at 10% moisture.
The revised forecast reflects updated industry data following the June harvest assessment and represents a slight reduction from the initial March forecast of 59,080 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture (63,350 tonnes at 10% moisture). Despite the revision, the 2026 crop is still expected to be significantly larger than the 2025 crop of 43,800 tonnes.
Australian Macadamia Society CEO Ben Baldwin said the season had delivered mixed outcomes across Australia’s growing regions.
“The 2026 crop has been highly variable, with results differing considerably between regions, farms and varieties,” he said.
“Overall production is expected to exceed last year’s crop, although the increase has not been as substantial in all areas, and many orchards are continuing to recover from the impacts of several consecutive wet seasons.”
Harvest has progressed to around 90 to 95% complete in Bundaberg, Australia’s largest macadamia growing region, where favourable conditions have supported good harvest progress and high-quality nut.
However, persistent rainfall has delayed harvest across parts of northern New South Wales and south-east Queensland, particularly the Northern Rivers, Gympie and Glass House Mountains regions, where harvest is still underway.
“Weather conditions have varied significantly across the growing regions this season,” Mr Baldwin said.
“While Bundaberg has enjoyed relatively favourable harvest conditions, ongoing rainfall in southern production regions has slowed harvest and increased the risk of quality losses where nuts have remained on the orchard floor for extended periods.”
Flowering and crop development conditions were generally favourable across most regions, with good pollination and crop retention. However, early flowering and limited nut shed did not translate into an earlier harvest in all areas.
Kernel recovery was lower than expected early in the season across several regions but has generally improved as harvest has progressed. Smaller nut size in some varieties has continued to influence kernel recovery outcomes.
With harvest still underway in parts of New South Wales and south-east Queensland, final production volumes are yet to be confirmed.
The Australian Macadamia Society will release the final 2026 crop figure once harvest has concluded later this year.
* The ‘Macadamia Crop Forecasting’ project has been funded by Hort Innovation using the macadamia industry levy and contributions from the Australian Government.
Media enquiries:
Ben Baldwin, CEO, Australian Macadamia Society
M: +61 400 743 170 | P: 1800 262 426 (Aust) | +61 2 6622 4933
