December 2021 market report

Strong Australian sales and production as demand recovery continues

Supply

The Australian macadamia industry has produced a 2021 crop of 51,500 tonnes in-shell @ 3.5% moisture (55,200 tonnes in-shell @ 10% moisture). This is an increase of 10% on the 2020 crop, due to favourable growing conditions in most regions despite the ongoing legacy of previous years’ sustained drought. Queensland’s growing regions performed strongly, and production from the new plantings in Bundaberg continues to increase as they reach five to ten years of age.

The global forecast for the 2021 season as reported by the INC is 240,424 tonnes in-shell @ 3.5% moisture, an increase of just over 5%. Macadamias South Africa’s (SAMAC) published crop estimate for 2021 is 54,174 tonnes in-shell @ 3.5% moisture, 11% higher than the 2020 season. Figures from Kenya indicate a 2021 crop of 37,000 t in-shell @ 3.5% moisture. China and Malawi are expected to return solid crops.

As we look towards 2022, Australian weather conditions have been excellent for flowering. Young trees are in good health, and it is expected new plantings will increasingly bear more commercial quantities.

Demand

As reported by National Australia Bank in October, the economic recovery from COVID-19 is unfolding at varying rates across the globe, resulting in a significant disparity in growth trends between markets. One common issue that remains across all regions is supply chain bottlenecks causing disruptions across the global network and challenging the industry.

Global demand for total macadamia kernel imports reflects this unevenness with Asian markets growing (Japan and China/ Hong Kong up 19% and 15% respectively), Europe stable, and the USA well off the pace at -21% compared with the year before (MAT September – August). With international travel restrictions continuing throughout 2021, the Hawaiian crop was consumed domestically reducing demand for kernel imports into the USA.

Total macadamia in-shell imports to China and Hong Kong were down by 16% following record import sales in the period before. However, Australia, Kenya and Guatemala experienced strong growth in this market at the expense of other origins. South Africa and Australia remain the major suppliers of NIS to this market.

Australian sales

The Australian macadamia industry has proven it is resilient following the global challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The quality standing of Australian macadamias in the global market and the strong commercial relationships in place have resulted in an upswing in Australian kernel sales in 2021.

Australian macadamia kernel sales performed very strongly, with all regions experiencing growth on prior MAT period. South Korea continues to be one of the fastest recovering markets for Australian sales, up 65%. Sales to USA improved with Australia’s market share lifting from 5 to 7%. Sales to the domestic market were positive at +14% on the year before.

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