Cautious optimism for 2026 Australian macadamia crop

The 2026 Australian macadamia crop is predicted to reach 59,080 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture, or 63,350 tonnes at 10% moisture, according to a climate-based forecast produced using scientific modelling developed by the Queensland Department of Agriculture and Fisheries*.

The forecast represents a strong recovery on the 2025 crop of 43,800 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture, which followed one of the most challenging seasons on record due to severe weather events and associated impacts across all production regions.

Australian Macadamia Society CEO Clare Hamilton-Bate said early indicators for 2026 were encouraging, with improved growing conditions and a more positive outlook across most regions.

“Flowering was strong and slightly early in many orchards, with good conditions for cross pollination, and nut set has generally been better than first anticipated,” she said. “Favourable weather has supported crop retention, and growers are reporting a marked improvement on last year, although it is not shaping as a standout bumper season.”

Ms Hamilton-Bate said the industry’s gradual recovery is being supported by younger plantings moving into their bearing and full production stages.

“Large plantings of trees from 2019 to 2022 are now contributing more meaningfully to national production. In several regions, younger orchards are performing well and showing resilience under variable conditions,” she said.

Production remains sensitive to climate conditions during the upcoming harvest window. The current forecast assumes no major late summer or early autumn cyclone or severe weather events.

“It is still very early days, and there are many variables at play as harvest begins to gather momentum,” Ms Hamilton-Bate said. “While the outlook is cautiously optimistic, the final result will depend on seasonal conditions over the coming months.”

The model-based forecast is an early estimate and will be refined as harvest progresses. A mid-season crop report will be provided in May/June 2026, with the final crop figure to be announced in early December.

* The ‘Macadamia Crop Forecasting’ project has been funded by Hort Innovation using the macadamia industry levy and contributions from the Australian Government.